経済短観 Economic Watchcat 2022-01号：
| Time | Incident |
|---|---|
| 2022-03-09 | Earth drillers |
| 2022-02-24 | Song of the hard power |
| 2022-02-14 | You are my sunshine and thermal energy |
| 2022-02-11 | Asian crude oil import |
| 2022-02-10 | When BOJ changes monetary policy |
| 2022-02-03 | Content creation becoming heavy industry |
| 2022-01-19 | Reducing domestic demand |
| 2022-01-13 | Everyday low price |
| 2022-01-11 | Renewable energy narrative close to the end |
| 2022-01-05 | NASDAQ plunge while conservatives gain |
| 2022-01-04 | Ikea slammed on German public television |
2022-03-09: Earth drillers
原油関連 (Oil products) ⇒ Sell timing For beginner investors, I recommend exiting the oil market without getting too deep into it.
For advanced investors, this tsunami may last until 2023. If you are a good surfer, worth a try. If you are not a good surfer, you will get a pile driver. Know our enemy, know ourselves, and we shall not fear a hundred battles.
ロシア投資 (Russia investment) ⇒ Neutral Economic sanctions against Russia will have a limited impact on the Japanese economy.
Although the individual companies participating in the Russian market may suffer some damage, the impact on the overall economy is not significant.
Financial markets are not in turmoil. As expected, the sanctions against Gazprom are loose.
Soaring energy markets have kept Japan and South Korea in the trade deficit. This is not only due to Russia, but also due to stagflation starting in 2021.
ゲーム (Game industry) ⇒ Neutral NFT games will become more popular, but it is unclear who will win in the sector. If you can find a winning game company, the return is high.
Behind the NFT scene, there are losing municipalities that are struggling for tax revenue. Traditional gambling is changing its name to digital gambling.
The local industry declines, tax revenue decreases, and the gambling profits are used to support roads, water supply, transportation, welfare, and education.
低緯度衛星 (Low-earth orbit technology) ⇒ Up
2022-02-24: Song of the hard power
とうもろこし (Corn commodity) ⇒ Sell timing For beginner investors, I recommend exiting the corn market without getting too deep into it.
For advanced investors, this tsunami may last until summer. If you are a good surfer, worth a try. If you are not a good surfer, you will be swallowed up. Know our enemy, know ourselves, and we shall not fear a hundred battles.
再生エネルギー (Renewable energy) ⇒ Neutral There is no doubt that renewable energy is necessary. However, there are still many secrets that the renewable energy industry is hiding from us, aren't there?
円 (Yen) ⇒ Up The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are known as safe-haven currencies in the international monetary market.
Switzerland is a European nation with mountain defenses. Japan, on the other hand, is an Asian nation with sea defenses. Both are highly defensive nations.
At the moment of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the market favored the Japanese yen over the Swiss franc.
2022-02-14: You are my sunshine and thermal energy
労働派遣 (Human Resource) ⇒ Down In order to solve the labor shortage, managers are switching their investments from humans to robots. Instead of a human resource business, a robot resource business becomes necessary.
NFT (Non-fungible Token) ⇒ Down NFT has potential, but it is still premature to market in 2022. More than 90% of NFTs are probably fraud cases.
個人金融 (Retail Finance) ⇒ Neutral Smartphones take over small-scale financial functions. Operating losses can be squeezed by simply shutting down the luxurious bank branches. The talented bankers have already found their new career paths.
低温物流 (Cold chain) ⇒ Up In the 20th century, cold chain was a science and technology for primary industries such as fresh food and beverage. In the 21st century, it will be for tertiary industries such as datacenter and IoT. Thermal energy management will make a great difference in business competition.
2022-02-11： Asian crude oil import
2022-02-11 Asian crude oil import
In terms of crude oil imports, China, India, Japan, and South Korea are the four largest trading partners.
2022-02-10： When BOJ changes monetary policy
BOJ (The Bank of Japan) will change its opinion before and after the Upper House election (参院選選挙) scheduled for the summer.
旭化成 (Asahi Kasei) ⇒ Sell timing Resource price disruptions will be prolonged. 2022 is the high-volatility market.
2022-02-03： Content Creation Becoming Heavy Industry
Facebook and Netflix were sold because the market sensed a decline in the number of users.
In the market, heavy industrialization is in progress, from low-quality content by amateurs to high-quality content by experts.
Microsoft bought Blizzard for about 68.7 billion dollars, the largest acquisition in the company’s history. Sony already has content development divisions. TikTok embraces a huge number of creators in the background.
Instagram is in danger of extinction. The red data social media is, of course, not subject to CITES.
2022-01-19： Reducing domestic demand
吉野家 (Yoshinoya) ⇒ Sell timing Kisidanomics (キシダノミクス) will reduce domestic demand in Japan.
2022-01-13： Everyday low price
低価格戦略の企業 (Everyday low price) ⇒ Down With rising raw material and labor costs, the low-price strategy for low-income families is unsustainable. Valuation of the companies also becomes everyday low price.
ファストリテイリング (Fast Retailing) ⇒ Up Known as ユニクロ (Uniqlo), the brand will enter into the luxury market, integrating the low-price products with high-price products. Executives are ready for the globalization of the 21st century (multi-lingualism + multi-regionalism + computer skills). Fast Retailing has a firm grasp of the future.
2022-01-11： Renewable energy narrative close to the end
資生堂 (Shiseido) ⇒ Down Defeat of marketing strategy
再エネ業界 (Renewables) ⇒ Down The renewable energy narrative, which has offered only the benefits, will expire. The downside of renewable energy attracts more attention.
原子力発電業界 (Atomic Energy) ⇒ Up
出光興産 (Idemitsu) ⇒ Up Holder of strong supply chain
仮想通貨 (Crypto) ⇒ Neutral Find no direction. However, Blockchain itself is the core technology of the next decade, so it would be a good idea to enter the crypto with minimum share, getting some knowledge and experience in web 3.0.
2022-01-05： NASDAQ plunge while conservatives gain
Observed inverse movement between US NASDAQ and JP 225. Gainers are conservatives and traditionals. Now, I am closely watching JPMorgan, anticipating the Return of King Market 2022.
2022-01-04： Deforestation & Aviation
マザーズ銘柄 (Mothers Index) ⇒ Down Bigger crash coming
木材を利用する産業 (Wood Industry) ⇒ Down The soaring wood price has led to deforestation, which has begun to raise international concerns. Ikea is slammed on German public television.
とうもろこし (Corn commodity) ⇒ Up
航空産業 (Aviation) ⇒ Up Aviation will be back in force. However, it is necessary to distinguish between aviation and travel agencies. Travel agencies will not survive. They will be replaced by software engineers.
ドル円 (Yen-dollar) ⇒ Neutral January is a rough month.